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Is the sea freight market expected to rebound in the second quarter? Freight rates have been rising for two consecutive weeks!

time:2023-04-18
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  According to the latest data released by the Shanghai HNA Exchange on April 7, the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) for export rose 33.15 points to 956.93 last week, extending the increase to 3.59 per cent. Freight rates on the three major ocean routes rose in a rare all-round way, with the West-America and East-America routes rising by more than $100. 


Last week, the Far East to Europe line turned positive again, up $14 per TEU to $877, a weekly increase of 1.6%; The Far East to Mediterranean line also recovered, rising $19 per TEU, or 1.1%, to $1,621. The Far East to Western America line rose $144, or 12.54 per cent, to $1,292 per FEU; And the Far East to America East line rose by US $137 per FEU to US $2,147, or 6.8 per cent. 


Meanwhile, the South American line's Santos points rose by US $86 per TEU, or 5.58 per cent, to US $1,817. The Singapore TEU rate for the Southeast Asia route fell US $3 to US $196 per teu, or 1.51 per cent lower for the week. 


Market participants said that in April, at the last moment of signing the new long term contract of the line into the United States, the tug of war between the two sides of the ship and cargo led to the delayed opening of the contract price in the New Year, and the container shipping company continued to support the spot price by cabin control, which helped to win better negotiating conditions. 


It is worth noting that, including Maersk, Mediterranean Line, CMA CMA Shipping and other container shipping giants have recently issued a comprehensive rate surcharge (GRI) price increase notice, is expected to increase from April 15 per FEU freight rate from 600 to 1200 dollars. Based on the current spot freight rate from Shanghai to the West line of the United States is about 1,200 US dollars, the increase will be as high as 50% to 1 times. 


In response, some industry insiders said that the cargo carriers have been filing GRI price increases twice a month with the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC), and have failed to raise the price several times this year amid weak US demand. On April 15, whether the price can rise smoothly, in addition to the acceptance of the shippers, but also need to have a certain degree of "tacit understanding" in the industry, as long as there is a shipping company bargain to grab goods will be wasted. 


A number of forwarding companies judge that the chance of success of this adjustment is not small, the near futures volume has a small increase, mainly due to the easing pressure of the global supply chain, the gradual digestion of inventory and the unsealing of China to drive the overall economic momentum gradually activated, people's livelihood consumer demand growth, it is expected that the shipping economy in the second half of the year will have a chance to gradually pick up. Although the increase may not be as expected by the shipping company, it is estimated that there is room for efforts in a small increase of around $300. 


The rate increase has been accompanied by increased congestion at ports. Data showed that about 1.88 million TEus, or 7.1 per cent of the global fleet, were stuck in various ports, continuing to increase from 6.8 per cent the previous week. The eastern Mediterranean, in particular, and some North American ports, including Vancouver, Oakland and Houston, saw increased congestion over the past week. 

As the peak summer season approaches, terminal companies are showing renewed confidence to facilitate new capacity. Deliveries of new ships hit a five -year high of 200, 267 TEus in March and are expected to exceed 2.2 million TEus in 2023.